Monday, January 28, 2008

PEPFAR, Kenya Revisited

The word of the week is PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief). On Tuesday, January 28, 2008, the President of the United States will deliver his annual State of the Union address. This is the most important planned political speech of the year in the U.S. because in it the President presents his spending priorities for the year. Certainly his spending priorities may not be the same as those of Congress, so the final budget may ultimately differ greatly from what the President proposes. Nonetheless, in this speech the President will tell us what spending he and his staff will fight for at the beginning of the long, complicated budget process. As that budget process goes along, the President's priorities may change. This year, for example, with recession a distinct possibility (if not already a reality) and a national election in which the President's political party could suffer if the recession is too deep, what the President proposes now and what his administration fights long and hard for during the spring, summer and early autumn could change significantly.

In an interview with USAToday's Susan Page and Richard Wolf last week President Bush stated that in his State of the Union address he will propose doubling spending on his AIDS initiative to 30 billion USD. As predicted by this blogger last week, fiscal conservatives quickly expressed concerns that the President's economic stimulus package will contribute to America's long-term economic problems by increasing deficit spending. They and like-minded moderates will be looking for every opportunity to hold down federal spending. Because the Democratic majority in Congress includes several fiscal conservatives, the budget fight will not break neatly along party lines. Advocates for global health can take heart in the fact that the President's AIDS spending proposal is a significant increase because a moderate proposal may have been bargained away to no increase at all.

The task for advocates will be to make sure that policymakers do not perceive spending for global health initiatives to be discretionary. Advocates will have to make sure that the Congress and the White House are continually reminded how important this spending is. the University Coalitions for Global Health and the Global AIDS Alliance petition that calls for increased spending and modifications to the current spending initiative is a good example of how advocates can work together to make a difference. The key to taking the President's spending initiative from proposal to reality will be in keeping up the pressure throughout the entire budget season.

Lest we forget Kenya. Yesterday I wrote about how important it is to tell global health stories with legs; i.e., stories that survive a single news cycle. Unfortunately, Kenya has turned into one of those stories of its own accord. According to a Reuter's report today, the total death toll is at more than 800. (Presumably this number does not include indirect deaths that may be due to disease and disruption of vital health care and nutritional infrastructure.) In the latest major incident, 19 people were burned to death while locked in a house. The roots of the violence are apparently much deeper than contested election results; they reach to a tangle of ethnic tensions that has existed at least as far back as the British colonial era. Obviously resolution of the election dispute will not be enough to put the lid back on this Pandora's Box. On-going violence is likely to add to the 250,00 people already displaced. Deaths are sure to rise due to violence, malnutrition, and disease. Remember that if you want to connect to sources on the ground in Kenya to see how you can help, you will find a list at AlertNet.

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